How To Tell If We're Beating COVID-19

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    This video made possible with support of Brilliant - the first 200 subscribers to go to Brilliant.org/MinutePhysics get 20% off a Premium subscription to Brilliant.
    Go to aatishb.com/covidtrends to explore the graph from the video yourself!
    RESOURCES
    Grant's 3Blue1Brown Video: Exponential Growth and Epidemics: fisels.info/video/videot/g5HYYtZ6sHSnq5s.html
    Aatish's Exponential/Logistic Curve-Fitting Site: github.com/aatishb/covid/blob/master/curvefit.ipynb
    Data Source: github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19
    Our World in Data Page on Coronavirus: ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
    How many tests for COVID-19 are being performed around the world? ourworldindata.org/covid-testing
    Understanding logarithmic scales: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/health/coronavirus-data-logarithm-chart.html
    What we can learn from the countries winning the coronavirus fight: www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028
    (Great explainer on log scales and growth curves explained in the context of COVID-19 in different countries)
    This video is a collaboration with Aatish Bhatia about how to see the COVID-19 tipping point - we present a better way to graph COVID-19 coronavirus cases using a logarithmic scale in "phase space" - plotting the growth rate against the cumulative cases, rather than either of these against time.
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    Minute Physics provides an energetic and entertaining view of old and new problems in physics -- all in a minute!

    Created by Henry Reich

    Julkaistu 2 kuukautta sitten

    Kommentteja

    1. Duncan

      .

    2. houndarchon1

      the aatishb site seems down :( could you reupload the covidtrends data and graphs to some other place? thanks!

    3. Hamisi Abdallah

      You can make this Juice at home to attack Covid-19 Virus.fisels.info/video/videot/oaqWnK2lhZtob2w.html

    4. Gordon GM

      Oh yeah China successfully contained the virus? I doubt that

    5. Initially Intellectual

      Why you stoped uploading

    6. Jesse Wood

      “In these uncertain times, times can be a little uncertain. And when times are uncertain it can be hard to know for certain what time it is”

    7. BugPvP :p

      <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="91">1:31</a> OMG THAT TOOK SO LONG TO CAPTURE "*Hertzsprung-Russell, anyone?"

    8. Randy Smith

      That might as well be a plot of China's credibility... DROPPING LIKE A ROCK!

    9. Jinhong PARK

      My country: *I AM MEDICINE* My country: South Korea

    10. Kalan Saunders

      Covid 19 is ending in Australia

      1. peppercorn owl

        Yay!

    11. Eben Visher

      What a fantastic video! Thanks so much for your time!!

    12. 王荺勝

      Chinese data are fake

    13. 刘娅

      well, I'm from china and now an American university student, and I stay hometown now, wait for maybe fall semester back. we all don't believe the real case turns to absolute 0, but from February everyone from Wuhan or outside travels to another place will be stayed at home 14 days to confirm(no matter you have any symptom)if you get COVID. and from February one family only got 2day once going out chance for buying some food. the government may or must hide some cases but in china what CCP(you remind this word)say, most Chinese will follow and do even they don't agree with a lot... so all people in China don't have any outside action from February, the Wuhan get "city lockdown"(you can't leave your city absolutely anyway) I can't trust the sudden fall of the case but the increase or we actually be lower than many countries I think...south Korea did something likely, they lock their country. I love America and for china not to the government lot, I love our people...some doctors work nearly 20 days and sleep totally less than 20hour to save people...that's a challenge to everyone 希望全世界所有国家的人民早日摆脱这场灾难(best wishes for all people around the world get rid of this disaster ASAP )

    14. Alexander Jackson

      Could you make another video with these sort of graphs, to show which countries are recovering well and which aren't? It's the best way I've seen so far.

    15. Eva Lam

      China is LYING !!!!

      1. 江枫

        That's true, the CCP has lied again and again, ten million people have died here, come and save us plz ,XD

    16. nitchvideo

      Here is a powerful source of understanding. fisels.info/video/videot/n6imk7FjqqOVgqc.html and yes it is more help than the news or government in understanding

    17. John the Greek

      Don't want to shit on your parade but China is most likely lying. Great video though

    18. Freeda Peeple

      I was not expecting a cogent, clear, informative video, but that's what I got! Thanks!!

    19. Benjamin Genco

      I keep coming back to get the link to the chart, hoping the US marker is gonna plummet

    20. Jewelry Bag

      This is a media-manufactured plandemic to further destroy the middle class and create a monopolistic dystopia. More people die of smoking, heart disease and cancer than this virus but the elites control the media narrative and, consequently, are controlling the sheep. I am so pissed off

    21. wojeff

      March 24: this video was filmed March 25: highest exponential growth point in US March 26: start of exponential growth decline in US March 27: this video premiered

    22. Eugenia Sum

      They didn’t include Taiwan tho

      1. wojeff

        I think emphasis was shown on countries with significant case totals. It's there and now in the main view too (good work Taiwan!)! aatishb.com/covidtrends/?location=Taiwan

    23. Bern Metro

      Please provide a updated version; same message new graphs. The presentation of the animated "waves of data populating the Logarithm plane is excellent!. If made current, it could demonstrate the increasing hope many need.

      1. wojeff

        aatishb.com/covidtrends/

    24. Jorge Cossa

      Nice

    25. Mario Z

      The one caveat and maybe most important is that confirmed cases is such an unreliable measure since countries have varying levels of testing and testing is inaccurate. I feel like a new number of deaths vs confirmed deaths graph would be a more realistic trend.

      1. wojeff

        That was addressed in the video. Counterpoint, you can't have deaths if you don't have cases (so grim!). They have done that for deaths here: aatishb.com/covidtrends/?data=deaths

    26. Yash Pal Goyal

      <a href="#" class="seekto" data-time="386">6:26</a> please pronounce the names correctly - T in Bhatia (spelt wrong in vid) is different from t in Aatish (correctly spelt in vid). GoogleTranslate says it right: translate.google.com/#view=home&op=translate&sl=hi&tl=en&text=%E0%A4%86%E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%B6%20%E0%A4%AD%E0%A4%BE%E0%A4%9F%E0%A4%BF%E0%A4%AF%E0%A4%BE

      1. Yash Pal Goyal

        otherwise a really nice video and thanks for bringing him in my notice. The site contains some really cool things that i am looking forward to experiment with some day.

    27. Arwah Sapi

      Statisticians: "Alright guys! It's our time to shine!"

    28. Fez Paladin

      WHAT ABOUT TAIWAN?

    29. sk Farhan

      Hey you haven't made new video yet Where are you?

    30. John Hailstone

      And post-viral effects.

    31. LIL JON'S

      Do a vid on if earth had 2 moons.....

    32. IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

      >implying the CCP will give accurate information about anything

    33. tom091178

      Diseases are a mechanism of evolution.

    34. Tae-young Kim

      중국은 조작인거 아시죠?

    35. North Korea

      America:vrroomm vrroommm hell yea im going fast af China:oi, im doing 2nd wave of covid 19 lets see how it goes

      1. no name

        Russia: Cyka Blyat

      2. Wendull 81

        Brazil: Hey Hey wait for me.

    36. 52marli

      I would rather know how many are sick and how sick the positives are. As long as you keep testing the number of cases will increase....but if its rare that positives are sick enough to require hospitalizations, that's what is important to me.

    37. Dodger Yassel

      You're an idiot. Your pseudoscience just tries to connect popular topics to some random concept in physics for views. You're a hack.

    38. khoen Da boss

      Is this the guy who had a whole video about using cats to power Norway? Yeah it is.

    39. Jean Poutine

      Total bulls**t by another person infected with Digital Narcissism peddling unicorn feces. Nobel laureate Pro. Michael Levitt studied Covid case growth rates starting with Wuhan and showed that the reported growth rates never achieved "exponential" slope, used 2nd derivative standard, and this mistaken assumption was why Neil Ferguson's initial mortality estimates were pure bolux. Covid case growth rates are about as exponential as the hits on this web-page.

    40. Davin Riedstra

      This is a great video. Perhaps even the best I've seen in the realm of Covid-19 coverage and understanding. I would love to see the timelapse graph updated for the end of May or beginning of June.

      1. Mister Comple

        aatishb.com/covidtrends/

    41. Parakmi I

      To make the gaphs look better imagine that humans are the disease.

    42. pragadeesh sv

      can u please say which animation software did u usesd for ur video?

    43. DONG YEUN KIM

      COVID-19: *_exists_* Korea CDC: *_So you have chosen D E A T H_*

    44. Rin

      this graph reveals how absolutely shockingly insufficient the US response has been. oh.. my god..

      1. Mister Comple

        your comment reveals how absolutely shockingly inept you are at understanding data

    45. jokinabadsbs

      China... Success?! HAH what a joke.

    46. CircleDrawing

      US isn't tough

    47. 김철수

      국뽕...

    48. Jacob E Owens

      Nobody believes the numbers out of China...

    49. Simranjeet singh matharoo

      "don't plot against time" that's a life hack right there

    50. what is life

      Chinas deaths are lies. There must be more deaths than the rate it apparantly is right now. The virus came from there!

      1. 江枫

        Yes, you are right, a billion people have died here

    51. Rachel’s rants I.

      Can’t believe Chinas data. They lied to us.

    52. AGR

      Imagine believing China’s reported numbers...

    53. 소고기커피

      im s. korean myself but i have to disagree with this. i dont even trust south korean statistics of coronavirus. they actually gave up the test but are using it politically for the sake of their support. all the media are saying koreans are fucking best and never criticize or analyze about the numbers. we are fucked. literally. fucked.

    54. Paul Matencio

      Hey ! You forget Vietnam, a country with 95 millions people . 0 dead

    55. Naomi Harding

      Please do more covid data vids, or share links to more content like this. Thankyou.

    56. Ciron Soauv

      What is amazing is that, even with under reported numbers, the graph still shows if growth is in exponential phase or not. Government would need to "exponentially" cheat to fake falling out of the curve...

    57. Bigdatamonk Inc.

      @minutephysics Doesn't the graph look similar because the logarithmic scale is too big to measure(comparative minor) deviations? It's like differentiating 2 stars in the sky, despite being very different in size they would look more or less similar, like a dot. Kindly enlighten.

    58. banbanrocks

      Clearly something wrong with Japan figures, no?

      1. Russ Wilkie

        It could just be a culture thing. Japan is a lot more hands off country that actually listens to their government about facemasks and social distancing.

    59. Ron Chasr

      Your not and wont be for a while. Dont be surprised if you have 200,000 or even 1,000,000 dead. America is finally no.1 at something.

    60. Robert Lockwood

      Be nice to see the graphs normalized by cases per 100,000 population but I expect that there would be even more overlap.

    61. dead pool

      Are we wining or losing

    62. Matthew Snyder

      fisels.info/video/videot/jKeedctjiIp8k5s.html

    63. XCMysterious Hope

      After watching a video on the number of infections, and realizing that it was not what I wanted to know, this was very beneficial.

    64. Harb Winetin

      China's number of cases are a lie of course.

      1. banbanrocks

        People like you are the cause of delayed responses in the West. Arrogant and ignorant. Mostly arrogant, I'd say.

    65. savemelofi

      Can someone explain to me why the CCP is being defended in these comments?

      1. savemelofi

        @banbanrocks But the CCP has been covering up the truth.

      2. banbanrocks

        It's about the truth, not CCP.

    66. Ben E

      Probably should throw out chinas numbers...

    67. DEMONSTRIA WOO

      Good job Trump, you made the West and the East turn against each other once again.

      1. banbanrocks

        Hope not. If the people of West and East would listen to Trump and really turn against each other, we as mankind deserve to be doomed

    68. DEMONSTRIA WOO

      I like how everyone is being biased to China while I sit here as a Chinese and say, “Okay, THIS IS ALL GONNA BE FINE.”

      1. IɴSɪmpʟeTermsJordaɴ

        The problem is China's oppressive, lying, single-party government. The people of China are not to blame for the actions (and non-actions) of the CCP.

    69. Prakash Goyal

      Hello friends today is my birthday. Kya aap mere ko ak subscribe gift me de sakte ho

    70. supersonic2K8

      This animation is also shows the overall trend of kills scored by my civilization in Stellaris over the course of the game. Exponential growth untill only my civilization remains. >:)

    71. 한강 물 온도 알리미Hangang Temprature Teller

      Just don't do it.

    72. Eclipse Z

      My country *I AM SPEED* Also my country- *The USA*

    73. aredesuyo

      So basically, when you consider all the caveats, you just wasted your time making a nice visualization of a bunch of bullshit.

      1. Russ Wilkie

        This is about Covid-19, not about your conception

    74. Harrison Yoo

      Not China though

    75. Our World Visualised

      Good stuff

    76. Tim Allen

      Is there a more up to date version of the data yet? I would love to see how the UK compares with the rest of the world.

    77. DANGER DOG

      If you think China is being truthful about their death numbers, you are an ignoramus.

    78. hawk0485

      Why did you remove the country selection tool?!

    79. Darren Dentremont

      Why are you showing China ? There numbers are not to be trusted at all.

    80. mt89

      COVID 19 ORIGINATED in USA. The virus was leaked from Fort Detrick, Maryland in July 2019. The bio-warfare lab was subsequently shutdown due to leakage. A substantial proportion of US flu cases were in fact covid19 cases. On 12 Mar 2020, CDC official had admitted that "some" flu cases in the US are COVID 19 cases. COVID 19 is spreading in US as early as August 2019, the gov just covers it up. The American athletes brought the virus to Wuhan when they participated in World Military Games. www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078 #Thanksforthevirus #UScovid19 #NewYorkVirus #AmericaVirus #FluNoTestNoVirus #NoWearMask